中心议题：
* 艰难曲折的中国电动汽车领先之路
中国的领导层正在发现，创建一个全球领先的电动汽车产业要比他们想像的要困难很多。
在2009年，中国领导层宣布了进军绿色汽车市场的宏伟计划，目标是使得中国成为全球电动汽车制造中心。他们投入了数十亿美元用于电动汽车研究，并期望到2015年能达到50万辆的年度销售目标。
今天，北京的雄心壮志已经开始有所收敛，因为中途碰到了许多技术难题，并且购买者尚缺少兴趣。开发商也没有很好地取得技术突破，运气好的话今年可能售出2000辆汽车，其中大部分是出租车。政府部门则通过将更加清洁的汽油发动机也包含进产业官方目标来规避风险。
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图题：2012年4月23日星期一在中国北京举办的2012年北京国际汽车展上，一位模特正在比亚迪e6电动汽车旁演示比亚迪最新的充放电技术。
中国政府已经在不断调整目标，因为“技术发展速度没有人们期望的那么快”，福特汽车公司亚洲区总裁Joe Hinrichs在最近举行的北京车展上指出。
中国政府还没有调低电动汽车年销量到2020年达到500万辆的目标，但包括温家宝总理在内的官员去年就开始承认进展缓慢，开发商需要提高质量，而不是匆忙地向市场推出新型号。
大约有13000辆纯电动和其它替代能源汽车正在中国25个城市开展测试，不过“尽管有政府资助，规模仍非常小”，中国科技部电动汽车局副主任郑子健在今年三月份表示。
比亚迪公司是中国最先进的电动汽车开发商，美国投资大师沃伦巴菲特的伯克希尔•哈撒威公司拥有该公司比亚迪10%的股份。据比亚迪公司透露，公司的e6电动汽车一次充电的行驶里程可达300公里(190英里)，与西方国家的电动汽车非常相似。
比亚迪在邻近香港的商业与技术中心中国南部城市深圳售出了300辆电动出租车和200辆电动公交车，比亚迪公司出口事业部总经理Henry Li透露。比亚迪在研发方面的投入非常大，研究电池与汽车技术的工程师达数千人。
“我们认为，我们的电动汽车(EV)平台是世界上最先进的平台之一，我们的大批量生产能力也非常高。”Li表示。
但就整个电动汽车产业来说，“能够提供真正可靠或商用化产品的制造商不是很多。”他指出。
中国领导层将电动汽车看作是抑制进口石油需求的一种方式，他们认为进口石油是一种危险战略，希望电动汽车产业能够帮助中国从低成本的世界工厂转变为可赢利技术的创造者。
“中国与其他任何国家一样都碰到了相同的技术障碍。”香港产业研究商Dunne &有限公司总裁Michael Dunne指出。
“他们说：慢着，也许我们不应过早地涉足电动汽车。让我们研究研究替代产品吧。也许我们必须采取稳步推进的方法，就像其他国家一样。”Dunne表示。
看到中国制造的汽车电池着火的新闻报道后，一些警惕性高的消费者已经推迟了购买计划。缺少充电站也在人们心里造成了“里程焦虑”——担心汽车半路上用完能源而让司机束手无策。
在中国2011年公布的最新五年经济发展规划中，政府发布了许多产业的发展方针，但唯独没有替代性汽车，这可能是政府官员退回去重新审视这个产业的信号。
最近中国国务院发表的一份重新支持电动汽车的声明极大地鼓舞了开发商。但这份声明同时要求研究开发非插电式混合动力汽车和节能型内燃机。
“电动汽车的发展势头慢下来了。”市场研究公司LMC Automotive的首席亚洲预测师John Zeng认为。
“他们不希望电动汽车或混合动力汽车成为中国保持未来可持续发展的唯一途径。”Zeng指出，“他们认为需要采取多种措施来实现目标。”另外，汽油机和柴油机技术也在发展，并以未来更低操作成本吸引着消费者的注意力。
中国政府从2001年就启动了电动汽车、燃料电池和其它替代能源的研究工作，并于2004年发布了开发具有竞争力的电动汽车计划，并承诺对开发商提供资金支持。
汽车制造商对北京的热情作出了积极响应。通用汽车公司在2007年宣布了在上海投资2.5亿美元建立替代燃料研究中心的计划。德国戴姆勒公司与比亚迪合作成立了一家名为Denza的电动汽车合资企业。他们在最近举行的北京车展上披露了第一款车型的展览版本。
中国的行动计划使得一些欧美人士担心在关键技术方面可能要落后。美国的一位能源助理秘书David Sandalow在2009年造访北京后，警告如果美国再不投资于电动汽车的开发，中国“很有可能占据领先优势”。
北京的2009计划要求今年生产出世界一流的电动汽车，然后是电动卡车和电动公共汽车。为了鼓励购买者，政府随后开始在包括上海在内的5大城市向购买者支付每车高达6万元(8800美元)的优惠补贴。
但中国最高经济官员温总理在去年7月发表的一篇文章中对缓慢的开发步伐表示失望。
“我们在技术上还不是发达国家的对手。”温总理在执政党的主要理论刊物《求是》杂志上写道。
“我们才刚开始电动汽车开发，”温总理指出。他认为中国领导人需要共同担责：“我们一直没有设立足够明确的路线目标。”
北京通过推出一系列除非国外开发商与中国合作伙伴共享技术否则就限制进入汽车市场的规则，因此与美国及其它贸易伙伴的关系有些紧张。戴姆勒公司透露与比亚迪建立合资企业的原因不是官方压力，而是戴姆勒公司想为中国创造一个低成本品牌。戴姆勒透露，将于明年上市的一款电动汽车一次充电行驶里程可达200-250公里(125-155英里)。
像Leaf电动汽车制造商日产汽车有限公司以及通用汽车有限公司等其它制造商则选择支付进口电动汽车和混合动力汽车所需的高额关税，而不是向可能成为竞争对手的中国合作伙伴提供昂贵的专业技术。
通用汽车的纯电动Volt汽车正在接受中国定单，但售价高达49.8万元(79000美元)，因此销量非常有限。
“由于进口关税的原因，目前中国地区售价是很高，而且我们不想去促销。”通用中国总裁Kevin Wale表示，“但我们认为在中国展示电动汽车功能仍然很重要的。”
中国厂商已经公布了一系列电动汽车和混合动力汽车的展览型号，有些汽车还首次用微型太阳能电池板或风力涡轮机进行充电，但大多数厂商表示还没有准备好大批量销售。
LMC Automotive公司的Zeng指出，除了在研发方面投入重金的比亚迪外，大多数厂商只是完成了获得科研补助金所要求的最少工作。“我认为更多厂商只是吹起了一个漂亮的肥皂泡，或者仅是为了争取政府的补助金。”他表示。
China's a of Electric Car Leadership Elusive
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China's a of Electric Car Leadership Elusive
BEIJING (AP) — China’s leaders are finding it’s a lot tougher to create a world-beating electric car industry than they hoped.
In 2009, they announced bold plans to cash in on demand for clean vehicles by making China a global power in electric car manufacturing. They pledged billions of dollars for research and called for annual sales of 500,000 cars by 2015.
Today, Beijing is scaling back its ambitions, chastened by technological hurdles and lack of buyer interest. Developers have yet to achieve breakthroughs and will be lucky to sell 2,000 cars this year, mostly taxis. The government has hedged its bets by broadening the industry’s official goals to include cleaner gasoline engines.
Caption: A woman demonstrates BYD's new charging and discharging technology on a BYD e6 electric car during the 2012 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition in Beijing, China, Monday, April 23, 2012.
The government has repeatedly changed targets because the “technology isn’t advancing quite as fast as people had hoped,” said Joe Hinrichs, Ford Motor Co.’s president for Asia, at this week’s Beijing auto show.
The government has yet to lower sales goals that ramp up to 5 million vehicles a year by 2020. But officials including Premier Wen Jiabao started acknowledging last year that progress was slow and developers need to improve quality instead of rushing models to market.
About 13,000 all-electric and other alternative energy vehicles are being tested in 25 cities, but that is “still small despite government subsidies,” the deputy director of the Ministry of Science and Technology’s electric vehicle bureau, Zhen Zijian, said in March, according to the business magazine Caixin.
China’s most advanced developer, BYD Co., in which American investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Corp. owns a 10 percent stake, says its electric e6 sedan can travel 300 kilometers (190 miles) on a charge, similar to Western models.
BYD has sold 300 taxis and 200 electric buses used in the southern city of Shenzhen, a center for business and technology near Hong Kong, according to Henry Li, general manager of its export division. BYD has invested heavily in research and has thousands of engineers working on battery and motor technology.
“We think our EV (electric vehicle) platform is one of the most advanced in the world, and our capability for mass production is quite high,” Li said.
But as for the rest of the industry, “there are not many manufacturers with really reliable or commercialized products,” he said.
Chinese leaders saw electric cars as a way to curb demand for imported oil, which they regard as a strategic danger, and to help transform China from a low-cost factory into a creator of profitable technology.
“China has run up against the same technical obstacles as anyone else,” said Michael Dunne, president of Dunne & Co. Ltd., a Hong Kong-based industry researcher.
“They said: Hold on, maybe we shouldn’t marry ourselves to electrics just yet. Let’s look at the alternatives. Maybe we have to take an incremental approach, just like everyone else,” Dunne said.
Wary consumers have been put off by news reports of batteries in Chinese-made cars catching fire. A lack of charging stations is causing “range anxiety” — fears a car might run out of power, leaving the driver stranded.
Under the Communist Party’s latest five-year development plan for China’s economy, issued in 2011, the government has released guidelines for other industries but not for alternative vehicles — a possible sign officials have gone back to the drawing board.
Developers were encouraged last week by a Cabinet statement that repeated support for electric vehicles. But it also called for work on developing non-plug-in hybrids and energy-saving internal combustion engines.
“The momentum has been slowed down,” said John Zeng, chief of Asian forecasting for LMC Automotive, a research firm.
“They don’t expect the EV or hybrid can be the only way for China to maintain its future sustainable mobility,” Zeng said. “They think they need multiple initiatives to achieve that target.”
Plus, gasoline and diesel technologies are advancing, luring consumers with the promise of lower operating costs.
The government launched research into electric, fuel cell and other alternative power sources in 2001. It followed in 2004 with a plan to create a competitive electric car and promised financial support to developers.
Automakers responded to Beijing’s enthusiasm. General Motors Co. announced plans in 2007 for a $250 million alternative fuel research center in Shanghai. Germany’s Daimler AG teamed up with BYD to create an electric car joint venture dubbed Denza. They unveiled a display version of its first model this week at the Beijing auto show.
China’s initiative prompted some in the United States and Europe to worry they might fall behind in a key technology. An assistant U.S. energy secretary, David Sandalow, visited Beijing in 2009 and warned China had “the potential to be ahead” if the United States failed to invest in development.
Beijing’s 2009 plan called for world-class electric cars by this year, followed by trucks and buses. To encourage buyers, the government started paying buyers rebates of up to 60,000 yuan ($8,800) per car the following year in five cities including Shanghai.
But Wen, China’s top economic official, expressed frustration at the slow pace of development in an article published last July.
“We are no match for developed countries in technology,” Wen wrote in Qiushi, the ruling party’s main theoretical journal.
“We’ve only just begun in electric car development,” the premier wrote. Wen said Chinese leaders shared in the blame: “We have not set clear enough goals of which way to go.”
Beijing strained relations with the United States and other trading partners by rolling out rules limiting access to its auto market unless foreign developers shared technology to Chinese partners.
Daimler has said it formed its venture with BYD not due to official pressure but because it wanted to create a low-cost brand for China. Daimler said their car, due to go on sale next year, should have a range of 200-250 kilometers (125-155 miles) on one charge.
Other manufacturers such as Nissan Motor Co., maker of the electric Leaf, and General Motors Co. have chosen to pay the higher taxes required to import electric and hybrid vehicles rather than disclose expensive know-how to Chinese partners that might become rivals.
GM is taking orders for its all-electric Volt in China but expects limited sales due to a relatively high price of 498,000 yuan ($79,000).
“It’s expensive in China at the moment because of import duties, and we don’t qualify for incentives,” said Kevin Wale, president of GM China. “But we still think it’s important that we demonstrate its capabilities here in China.”
Chinese producers have unveiled a series of display models of electric and hybrid cars, some sprouting tiny solar panels or wind turbines for recharging, though most say they are not ready for mass-market sales.
LMC Automotive’s Zeng said that aside from BYD, which has spent heavily on development, most have done only the minimum required to qualify for research grants.“I think it’s more to create a PR bubble or fight for government subsidies,” he said.
